2008 report
Progress: 40 %
Based on the progress achieved in months 1-12, during months 13-24, partners CICERO, University of Lapland and OASys assessed the impact of recent climate change and sea ice cover reduction in the Barents Sea region on human activities in northern Norway and northwest Russia, and reached some preliminary conclusions about the socioeconomic consequences and the resulting adaptation and vulnerability of communities and sectors. Desk research was supplemented by field visits, stakeholder meetings and field research conducted in four case study sites – two in northern Norway and two in northwest Russia. Interactions between climatic, biophysical, and socio-economic changes and factors relevant to the coastal fisheries, shipping and oil and gas sectors over the two time periods were explored and are being documented.
Based on ongoing research within this task, the partners have determined that climate change is one of a number of factors affecting the sectors and societies in question. For example over the past century, major technological, demographic and regulatory changes have greatly affected the coastal fishing industry in northern Norway. Fishermen not only adjust their activities in response to changes in climate and weather, but must also account for shifts in fishing technology, new and changing fishing regulations, and variable access to local, regional and distant markets. At the same time, out-migration and the high cost of entering the fishing trade today mean that fewer young men and women are being recruited, resulting in an aging population of fishermen. These changes are straining the capacity of the profession to cope with change. Local knowledge of tides, winds, and sea conditions that were once essential to livelihoods and survival along the northern coast, are increasingly being replaced by modern navigational technologies such as GPS and sonar devices.
Climate change is an additional factor that affects the ability of coastal fishermen to respond to a changing resource and regulatory base. Given knowledge about how climate (and change in water temperature in particular) affects commercial fish stocks and biological interactions between different fish species, as well as the financial, technical and social challenges confronting the fisheries sector today, climate change will pose additional challenges to the ability of coastal fishermen to adapt and to sustain their livelihoods. An important area of investigation for the remaining research will be to determine the specific skills and capacities that fishing communities possess and will need to overcome the challenges posed by climate and other ongoing changes. The roles of alternative employment, entrepreneurship, demography, education, new technologies, and fisheries management structures in informing adaptation and vulnerability will form a critical part of the ongoing analysis.
There is no traditional “coastal fishing” industry in northern Russia as we understand the term in the West, and there are few “traditional fishing communities” along the coast. Fishing has historically been an “urban” activity in the sense that the vast majority of fishery-related activities took (and take) place in Murmansk, or have been carried out by vessels registered in this city. The following theoretical approaches have been identified as the most important and relevant to analysing climate change impacts: vulnerability theory, social carring capacity model, discourse analysis.
Based on an integration of these studies, the potential for developing a numerical socio-economic model (in collaboration with Matt Berman U of Alaska, Fairbanks SEARCH) or of applying existing models of the Arctic system and coupled to the sea ice-ocean model NOASIM, will be explored based on an assessment of biophysical and socio-economic indicators of high social relevance for the case study regions. Greater efforts will be made in the coming 3 months to coordinate and integrate both the analyses and the results in task 5.5. This will be accomplished by scheduling regular phone meetings and at least one internal coordination meeting.
Text Box 1: An Example: Coastal fisheries in northern Norway (CICERO)
The fisheries sector is an important sector in terms of employment and livelihoods (socio-economic context). The Barents Sea supports some of the world's most important commercial fisheries (biophysical context). Climate variability in the region has been shown to affect the growth, reproduction, and distribution of key fish stocks (climate context). Socio- economic vulnerability to climate change in the coastal fisheries sector is directly connected to biophysical and climatic changes, and this varies with societal scale. Scale is a critical component in understanding vulnerability and adaptation. Arctic modelling and observation systems need to be connected to socio-economic needs and end-users.
Investigations into human impact of climate change in the Murmansk region ( University of Lapland, Finland) highlight the following emerging issues: How can climate data sets and biophysical models be applied in social research? In this context some important considerations are: User-friendliness of the data to the end-users; qualifying quantitative and observed climate data; assessing how marine biological dynamics at higher trophic-levels respond directly and indirectly to climate variability, and determining how physical, biological, social, economic and political factors interact with climate variability and change.
Goals
• Document past and current human responses to climate variability in the Barents Sea region
• Enhance understanding of potential adaptation measures for ocean based, industrial sectors and local, resource-dependent communities
• Suggest ways of incorporating human needs and concerns into current and future Arctic modelling and observation systems.
• Assess the impact of recent climate change and sea ice cover reduction in the Barents Sea region on human activities in northern Norway and northwest Russia, the socioeconomic consequences and the resulting adaptation and vulnerability of communities and sectors.
• Document the interaction between climate and sea ice changes and other factors affecting human activities (local and sectoral)
Methods
Desk research was supplemented by field visits, stakeholder meetings and field research conducted in four case study sites – two in northern Norway and two in northwest Russia. Interactions between climatic, biophysical, and socio-economic changes and factors relevant to the coastal fisheries, shipping and oil and gas sectors over the two time periods were explored and documentation is ongoing. .See full text above for activities, and deviations from the project Work programme for task 5, below.
