Descrition of task
WP 5, task 1 Evaluation of improved Numerical Weather, Ocean and Sea Ice Prediction during DAMOCLES – short to medium range prediction assessments (days to weeks).
This task will bring together the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-related observations and modelling work undertaken in Work Packages 1-4. Most, if not all, the components of DAMOCLES' scientific work have to potential to have a positive impact on the quality of operational weather, ocean and sea ice forecasting. The focus on Arctic conditions in DAMOCLES will directly improve these operational models. Also the work in the process-oriented work packages (surface fluxes, boundary layers, clouds and precipitation, for example) will have a positive impact on NWP quality, although in a longer perspective.
Assessments will be made on the impact of DAMOCLES observations and newly developed assimilation methods on operational forecasts. The relevance of improved forecasts on societal activities and living conditions will be examined (traffic, search and rescue, human).
It is proposed to arrange workshops with participation from DAMOCLES scientific staff, from operational weather and marine forecasting centres and from some selected end users to assess the impact of DAMOCLES efforts on operational forecasting and, more generally, on human activities. It is natural that a first workshop in the beginning of DAMOCLES will focus on present problems in Arctic forecasting and the possibilities for improvements by DAMOCLES efforts. Most NWP work in DAMOCLES is devoted to regional modelling, therefore we restrict this first workshop to short range forecasting in the Arctic and surrounding areas.
